Will TradFi Kill BTC USD Volatility? Lessons From Forex?

Wall Street may be taming Bitcoin’s mood swings, turning BTC USD a little more like a major forex pair.

Bitcoin held near $115,700 on Sunday, Sept. 21, as a growing question took center stage: is TradFi steadying Bitcoin’s swings or changing their shape?

The debate picked up after fresh inflows to the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF and new remarks from Michael Saylor. 

In a Saturday interview on the Coin Stories podcast, Saylor said calmer price action helps, not hurts: “You want the volatility to decrease so the mega institutions feel comfortable entering the space and size.” 

He called it a normal “growing stage” as products and liquidity deepen.

On the derivatives side, CME said crypto options notional open interest hit a record $7.1Bn on Sept. 9, led by Bitcoin contracts, evidence that hedging tools for bigger players keep expanding.

Our Crypto options notional open interest hit an all-time high of $7.1B on September 9, led by record highs in our Bitcoin contracts. 🚀

Institutional players are no longer just exploring digital assets; they’re actively using options for risk management and capital efficiency.… pic.twitter.com/9gN9zkM5QP

— CME Group (@CMEGroup) September 11, 2025

TradFi probably won’t erase BTC USD volatility. It may smooth out fewer wild gaps, more mean-reverting drift, with the occasional shock that still bites. 

What to watch next: whether ETF flows stay positive into quarter-end, how options price the path of Fed cuts, and whether regulation or geopolitics jolts implied vol off the floor.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin Cycle Trap: Is 2025 Repeating the 2017 and 2021 Pattern?

According to an analysis shared by trader Merlijn, Bitcoin’s long-term chart once again echoes its historical cycle patterns.

BITCOIN IS DOING IT AGAIN.

Every cycle has the same cycle trap.
Flush. Confuse. Then detonate higher.

2017: Check
2021: Check
2025: Loading

Ignore the playbook, and you’ll miss the parabola. pic.twitter.com/xnYMx5ZSvB

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) September 21, 2025

The chart shows that every major bull run since 2017 has included a mid-cycle “trap”  a sharp correction that forces weaker hands out before the market resumes its rise. 

In 2017, Bitcoin rose rapidly, and then it experienced a sharp decline that shook confidence, only to climb to historic levels a few months later. 

The same pattern repeated in 2021, with prices freezing around $60,000 and then surging up.

(Source: X)

The present chart of Merlijn also indicates 2025 to be another instance of this pattern. 

BTC USD rose to $100,000, and then retreated, creating yet another level of a flush and confusion phase. The price has been above $115,000 and has surged after returning to six figures.

The analysis shows the presence of downward resistance lines, which historically yielded following these cycle traps, thus resulting in parabolic progressions. 

Green zones on the chart show prior acceleration phases, each ending in fresh all-time highs.

Bitcoin may be on the verge of another explosive rally if the pattern plays out again. Merlijn summed up the sequence simply: “Flush. Confuse. Then detonate higher.”

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Is BTC USD Weekly Chart Pointing Toward a Massive Q4 Rally?

Ash Crypto posted Bitcoin’s weekly chart, which is flashing a classic hidden bullish divergence. 

BITCOIN WEEKLY HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE IS YET TO PLAY OUT

MASSIVE BITCOIN PUMP IS COMING IN Q4 pic.twitter.com/ZihXku43ag

— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) September 21, 2025

Price has carved higher lows above $115,000 while the weekly RSI recently made lower lows and is now increasing. That mismatch often signals trend continuation, not reversal. 

Buyers held the rising base around $114,000-$115,000, showing sellers couldn’t push a deeper correction. 

RSI has bounced from a downward trendline near the mid-50s, adding momentum back into the move.

(Source: X)

The near-term test is $120,000, and the ceiling of the recent weekly closes. A decisive close above it would put $128,000-$130,000 in play, where the prior supply sits. 

Bulls argue the setup could fuel a fresh Q4 advance if strength builds through that band.

For now, the structure remains constructive: steady accumulation at higher levels, improving momentum, and a clear line in the sand. Holding the $114,000-$115,000 shelf keeps the signal intact. Losing it would weaken the case and delay any breakout.

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